Black red? Black yellow? Merkel with whose alliance _New China international _New China net

    On September 27, the CDU party chairmen and Chancellor of Germany Merkel expressed best wishes in capital CDU Headquarters in Berlin to the supporter. The German 17th session of federal parliament elected the initial result on 27th evening to make known, formed Alliance Party to win 33.8% ballots by CDU and Jishemeng, continued maintains the federal parliament first big party status. Xinhua News Agency/Reuters

    Yesterday, Germany carried on the election, looking from the present election, Alliance Party which incumbent premier Merkel led will win many seats once more, Merkel continues several is also a foregone conclusion. What is only indefinite, who Alliance Party and will collaborate to form the government, is present’s teaming up Social Democratic Party, will covet the lawful right already long Liberal Democratic Party, but ally’s different certain extent will also affect Germany in the future the internal affairs diplomacy trend.

    Alliance Party and whose alliance

    The German election, the multi-parties compete, colorful. Premier Merkel is head’s Alliance Party advances to win not to have the suspense, most is also wins what kind of degree the question. At present most receives pays attention is actually Alliance Party, Social Democratic Party and how the Liberal Democratic Party three parties to match the combination, but these three parties’ generation of colors have corresponded the German national flag exactly black, red and yellow tricolor. Now, “black yellow”, is “black red”, is a question.

    Before China, indicated in German Ambassador Mei Zhaorong that is actually “black red” “black yellow” to be decided by the Liberal Democratic Party obtained number of votes, if adds together after the Alliance Party number of votes is insufficient over half, then Alliance Party can only with Social Democratic Party once again hand in hand. Although Alliance Party and Liberal Democratic Party has shown the favorable impression before this mutually, is willing to form an alliance with the opposite party, but Mei Zhaorong said that in Alliance Party’s heart of hearts to collaborating Liberal Democratic Party actually and uncertain. First, must take into consideration the worry of voter, because of still place the economic crisis, Liberal Democratic Party favored at present the capitalist, but the non-minority groups, the common people populaces definitely are not glad; From the long-term ruling consideration, cooperates with Social Democratic Party again advantageously to own. “Alliance Party faces how the most major difficulty and challenge will come out of the crisis, will climb to the unemployment rate to the middle of the next year over 10%, once will collaborate after Liberal Democratic Party the achievements will not be actually good, then the next election will have the possibility to be defeated extremely.”

    Shanghai Europe Academic society assistant deputy secretary-general Zhang Zuqian judges , to continue “black red” alliance’s possibility to be biggest. At the same time, Liberal Democratic Party’s composition background is mainly an entrepreneur, is low in the populace support level. “This election has manifested one atmosphere, that is although the voter did not determine one want anything, but can determine that does not want anything, they do not want Merkel’s Alliance Party to add on Liberal Democratic Party’s ` black yellow’ combination, because was worried that own benefit receives harms, the worry as a result of Alliance Party is strong, but Liberal Democratic Party is weak, such combination can form the aspect which is unable to keep in balance.”On the other hand, currently Social Democratic Party’s support level has the rise, but Liberal Democratic Party must achieve must 13% support levels are very actually difficult. In addition the newborn left wing party support level rise is recently quick, estimated that can achieve 13%-14%, has divided Liberal Democratic Party’s ballot.

    Regarding “black red” big alliance rule, Shanghai international issue Research institute Europe Research Center Director Ye Jiang pointed out that Social Democratic Party’s entire election is not very good, as a Germany’s big party, this party the support level dropped in recent years unceasingly, dropped from about 40% to present about 23%. “When this is appointed premier with Schroeder the rule concerns to a great extent improper. At that time, dispirited adjusted social security and other welfare benefits because of the economy, finally caused discontentedly, eventually caused the inner-party fission.”

    In addition, theoretically speaking, Social Democratic Party and Green Party and left wing party also possibly forms an alliance, but the experts think that the possibility is not big. This combination’s administration ability is weak, possibly does not stabilize, the voter will not support, moreover these political parties will be the left political party, the voter will also think that has not kept in balance.

    The internal affairs diplomacy changes

    After this election, what Germany’s internal affairs diplomacy will present to change, moves toward to the future China, Germany relations will have what effect?

    The experts believe that, the new government’s internal affairs foreign policy will continue generally speaking the present situation, presents the big change the possibility to be very small.

    Ye Jiang said that regardless of carries on what kind of combination, will not have the big change in the domestic affair, specially under the present economic crisis, the incumbent party will give priority to promoting the economy, if Merkel’s Alliance Party does not form an alliance with Social Democratic Party, but forms an alliance other small parties, will enable the policy to develop in a more conservative direction.

    “If ` is black red’ pattern to continue, then the change of German internal affairs foreign policy cannot be very big. In fact, in dealing at the financial crisis, the German common people basically supports the present government’s countermeasure, but in the diplomatic aspect, except has the dispute in the Afghan question, the populace also basically approve the present government’s foreign policy.”Zhang Zuqian said.

    As for on Sino-German relations effect, Mei Zhaorong thinks in maintaining in the certain cooperation original main key, will must have some clashes, after all both sides still had the barrier in the ideology. “If ` black yellow’ forms an alliance, although Liberal Democratic Party 10 years out of office, his leader and I not collide, but this party main since by, democracy and human rights banner, is quite strong in the Tibet question.”

    Ye Jiang thinks that can have two kinds of aspects: If “black red” matches continues, then the German government original policy will have the obvious continuous nature; But if Alliance Party unifies other small parties, forms in the Alliance Party certain extent a party alone big bureau, then the Sino-German relations can experience the adjustment. “But as for having big rise, we and Merkel have had many years social dealings, has together the coordinated leeway.”Ye Jiang said. (In Beijing Reporter Liao Qin newspaper Reporter Yang Liqun)

(Chief-editor: Feng Yanqiang)