How financing securities loan index future appears to tread the accurate first quarter quotation

Honored guests: Shenyin international negotiable securities research institute chief macroeconomic analyst Li Huiyong

Shanghai Negotiable securities institute Guo Yanling

Cathay Pacific Junan property control division invests inspector general Wang Jian

Directors: Chinese negotiable securities newspaper reporter Zhu Yin

Index future financing securities loan influence geometry

Directors: Friday the financing securities loan as well as extrusion of index future, regards as the Chinese stock market development steps out significant one step, indicates that the transaction variety and international connects rails gradually, how do these two innovations affect to the market?

Wang Jian: From the mature market empirical analysis, these policies will enable the large-scale blue chip stock to have a better fluidity, the policy initial period, because market’s speculative factor will create the big fluctuation, simultaneously the birth low risk arbitrage’s significant opportunity, the product innovation also will also face the unprecedented opportunity, the investor should prepare for in these aspects.

Guo Yanling: Market influence of the financial innovation is remarkable, the first financing securities loan and index future will give the market to bring the additional transaction fluidity, to the active stock market, increases middle ministrant income of the financial institution securities trader to have the positive influence particularly. The financing securities loan to having the service development ability’s big securities trader advantageous, and has strong achievement growth to anticipate. But the young securities trader has the difficulty, the market expands the speed will not be quick. As a whole is benefits to the securities trader stock, particularly the capital in cash abundant securities trader, the future market pattern will present powerhouse permanent.

Next, looking from the market stratification plane, at present the bulk lots blue chip stock’s market estimate value is relatively somewhat low, this innovation will cause the investor to the bulk lots blue chip demand rise, its influence is forward, the estimate value premium will enhance. Extrusion of financial innovation product to the estimate value promotion of bulk lots blue chip stock is obvious, therefore the financing securities loan and index future will change the market investment style without doubt, strengthens the bulk lots blue chip stock the core position. But because may operate reverse, therefore is long-term, the investment behavior based on the fundamental plane, the short-term probably brings to hold the behavior change, the style hot spot’s gradual wheel moves.

How the fluidity opening

Directors: Which in 2010 does affect the market liquidity key aspect to have? The market generally thinks that in the first quarter of this year the financial aspect is loose, the listed company achievement grows compared to the same period, the stock market correspondingly will have the good performance, you think that is this?

Wang Jian: This must look that the fluid definition, this is not only decided by the fund supply total quantity, is decided by the market size and financing demand. Grows without cause for grief and CPI pressure appearance in Bulgaria, Central Bank will serve with quantity to tighten gradually with interest rate enhancement and other policies, causes the fluid supply and demand pattern to have the delicate change. At the beginning of 2010 market expectation addition credit will be still high . Moreover the achievement growth cardinal number will be low in the first half of next year, this will maintain the strong trend state of equilibrium in market to a certain extent. But later period real estate sales data and credit delivery data whether to tally anticipated will test the economic growth unceasingly the stamina is whether sufficient, along with the confidence fluctuation, the market operation will be more complex.

Guo Yanling: 2010 credit delivery will still have the growth, but the general judgment is steady slightly has recedes, the fund structure has the change, the reason has three: First, starts from 2009 in the second half of the year, the economical being strong anticipated impetus credit fund inflow real economy wish strengthens, therefore flows in capital market’s funds to recede from the credit channel this year obviously, but the fund collecting dynamics enlarges, fund inflow speed of the institutional investor will have to speed up; Second, at the end of 2009 new stock release and financing rhythm indication the entire A stock market’s financing demand is still exuberant this year, the annual call for fund will increase clearly; Third, 2010 age limit sells the stock to lift a ban brings the fund pressure with the entire circulation proportion constant rise to the market. In addition, we also noticeable are in 2010 year the possible economical withdrawal policy and monetary policy adjustment. The synthesis said that 2010 market supply and demand meets relative in 2009 to be tight, but pursues the long-term stable income the fund proportion to increase.

Looking from the time node, the financial aspect is relatively loose in the first quarter, is the economy grows the high spot which the listed company achievement grows compared to the same period compared to the same period, in the achievement growth has the support and call for fund to have under the safeguard premise, continuing of market should be able to anticipate actively, the beginning of the year market has flushes the high power.

Li Hui is brave: The synthesis, we think that the basic currency circulation will increase is insufficient to counter-balance the currency multiplicator to drop completely to the currency supplies adverse impact, in the currency supply capacity speed-up overall will drop to about 18%. Certainly considered the fluidity in the different non-balanced distribution markets, this does not mean stock market and real estate market’s fund inevitably is intense.

As a whole, we think US dollar after the condition repair which ultra falls will maintain the sector shake pattern, the whole year presents the N shape trend. In the US dollar repair upward stage, the bulk commodity price rising trend will possibly receive to suppress. But follows US dollar to recede once more, the bulk commodity price picks up the upward tendency hopefully again. US dollar exchange rate’s trend will also decide that the Renminbi revaluation the rhythm, considered US dollar rises the steady trend first, this year after the Renminbi revaluation’s rhythm is first is possibly slow, quick.

This week the Yangpiao interest rate upward indicated that the country starts to further carry out the contraction of credit policy, is start which Central Bank regulates ahead of time. This conforms to our previous anticipations. The influence is the first quarter credit growth is lower than the market expectation. The Yangpiao interest rate upward has also promoted market about interest on futures anticipated, we think that as a result of the influence of snow disaster, the CPI increase scope will be high, but was still the temperate inflation as a whole, only if CPI achieves consecutively for 3-6 month increase scopes surpasses 4% conditions, the interest on futures possibility is not big ahead of time.

The policy anticipated that is worth paying attention

Directors: In 2010 is considered that is Chinese economy again balance one year, in impelling in the Chinese economic equilibrium process, which policies anticipated this year is worth paying attention?

Li Hui is brave: In 2010 grows the low inflation high is the big probability event. The optimistic reason one is we thinks that the export situation will change markedly for the better. The actual export growth will achieve 16% to be even higher; Second, the balanced policy and export change for the better will lead the folk economical the development, can make up the government policy withdrawal to the economical adverse impact.

In economic data mighty waves were not startled in the situation, the following policy becomes the attention the key point. First what is worth paying attention is the withdrawal policy. The monetary policy tightens obtained each aspect confirmation, the credit delivery volume potentially is 7 – 8 trillion, reduced 1.5 compared to last year – 2.5 trillion. The country also started to adjust about the real estate business tax policy, what then must pay attention is to second-hand house’s credit policy for example first Fu Bili, how interest rate to make the further stipulation. Before these stipulations have not appeared, the real estate industry has possibly faced quite big policy pressure. What next is worth paying attention is the country adjusts the structure the policy, the income distribution system reform and factor price reform, relaxes the monopoly reform as well as the emerging strategic industry promotes these four big reforms development way reforming which emphasized regarding the Central Economic Working Conference once more to have the vital significance, but these reform whether to promote also directly to affect us as scheduled to the future China economic prospect and pattern judgment. At present from the situation which understood looked that relaxes monopoly reform hopefully newest appearing, has the strength private enterprise, to become hopefully is purchased the state-owned monopoly enterprise in target company to be able obviously to profit.

Guo Yanling: Of according to various end of the year State Council and ministries to 2010 working arrangement, we estimated that further consummation and the persistent advancement and the urban living in contentment room policy’s expense stimulation policy particularly rural consumer preferential policy adjustment and the medical system the tax system experiment site and development as well as will appear to emergent industry’s supportive policy in 2010 one after another, to forming the new economic growth power and improvement economic growth pattern has the progress.

Quotation main battlefield where

Directors: Regarding the investor, which domains at the beginning of 2010 priority of investment should place? Which professions has to bring the ultra anticipated income?

Guo Yanling: At the beginning of 2010, we must grasp two master lines; first, listed company annual report achievement ultra anticipated and high drawing bonus theme, such as commercial retail, electromechanical device, communication equipment and other professions were worth paying attention; Second, in 2010 under industrial policy adjustment growth anticipated, including the technical equipment like IT equipment and information service, new material and other profession the opportunities for investment. In addition, suggested that pays attention to market policie adjustment like the index future and so on bulk lots blue chip stock constitutive opportunity which brought.

In 2010, we favor from domestic demand expend, the emerging strategic industry and inflation conformity tectonic plate three angles carry on the profession to dispose with emphasis, suggested ultra matches the profession has the finance (bank and insurance), commercial retail, medicine, electromechanical device, electrical appliances and information service and IT equipment and other professions, in the subject investment strategy aspect we favor the inflation anticipated and under the profession conformity in the coal industry region leading enterprise.

Wang Jian: Looking from the short-term, next year’s opportunities for investment must based on understand to listed company’s in industry chain position’s depth that the downstream continues the demand but the upstream raw material supply is to one’s limit sufficient, the cost locking profession will have the achievement leap, the infrastructure continues with the great quantity investment background, mid and late part to profit the segmentation profession also to have the ultra anticipated opportunity. In the long run, energy conservation reducing emission is next few years’s eternal theme, new technical, new material, new craft and new product utilization, regardless of from the increase demand analysis, is to the storage quantity investment substitution analysis, will have the big ponder and investment layout space.

Directors: Which does 2010 electing stock strategy have? The comprehensive organization viewpoint, does the general acceptance shake quotation, how make a profit in the shake market?

Wang Jian: We will stand in the future five years standpoint carry on the ponder to focus carry on the medium and long-term layout. Under Chinese economical medium and long-term fast growth optimistic expectation, almost vast majority of profession (, regardless of investment consumable) has the opportunity, the key lies in the choice strong trend company. Next year the concrete trend in market will be very difficult to judge, we think that this is unimportant. How in the shake the price margin does, is not our core competitiveness. We will still insist that value investment style, depends upon the performance of strong trend company to obtain the superior earnings in the shake market.

Guo Yanling: Because in 2009 the market had the more comprehensive bounce quotation, therefore the overall estimate value level approached the reasonable level, possibly has the partial estimate value trough, but the opportunity is more limited. Therefore in choosing the stock aspect we even more stressed that the economic policy and industrial policy orienting substantial room for growth, suggested adopts in the profession vein foundation chooses the stock strategy from bottom to top. We estimated that in 2010 the index performance will present the N shape trend, may say that is a shake pattern, in shake pattern tendency investment strategy still valid, defeats market’s magic weapon.

At the beginning of the year, the development facility eye looks at 4000 high spots, before the stock index actually hesitation not, in the first quarter quotation but as scheduled to? Index future and financing securities loan and other innovation services promote, investor how layout? This issue round table forum invited Cathay Pacific Junan Wang Jian, Shanghai negotiable securities Guo Yanling and Shenyin international Li Huiyong, the taking the pulse macroeconomic trend, directed the market investment strategy.

(Origin: Chinese negotiable securities newspaper)

(This article originates: Chinese negotiable securities newspaper)