Qiaobusi does not like the Flash bottom of the affair: PC withering away and cloud computation

　　Lead: The foreign media publishes editor Charlie todayShi Qiaosi (Charlie Stross) the article, has analyzed “cloud computation” the tendency and apple iPad does not support Flash the reason.

　　The following is article full text:

　　New tendency appearance

　　This week, the scientific and technical circles presented several interesting news.

　　First, apple president SteveQiaobusi (Steve Jobs) publishes open letter, did not support Flash the reason to carry on the explanation to iPhone/iPad, caused between the arguing apple and Adobe turns red-hot day by day.

　　Second, HP will purchase Palm, is to obtain the WebOS operating system very obviously. Some rumors said that HP will develop a series of based on the WebOS system\’s tablet PC, to resist iPad. At the same time, just like Microsoft cancelled the Courier tablet PC project, HP will have cancelled the Windows 7 tablet PCs.

　　Third, technical blog gizmodo.com publishes the article, discussed apple “global faithful team”, this team is responsible for trace the divulging a secret event and prevents the confidential information the dissemination.

　　May not exaggerate saying that the apple security policy in the enterprise is strictest one, even may compare favorably with the military establishment. Qiaobusi strictly keeps secret to the iPad technology, the iPhone divulging a secret event has aroused the close interest of match, these are worth pondering.

　　I believe that Qiaobusi is taking the new market to bet the apple the future, this market value surpasses 200 billion US dollars companies either to win total victories, either collapses completely. HP realized the crisis, but late 2-3 years. Microsoft is stranded in the mire, still did not know that its livelihood ecosystem will be subverted thoroughly.

　　Last century the mid-90\’s, we realized Internet is computer\’s future. Along with network bandwidth increase, we do not need all data to save in the hard disk: The data and interaction may follow us to arrive at a broader world. The digit dialing surfer promoted the .com 1.0 development, the wide band surfer to promote the .com 2.0 development, now we start to anticipate .com 3.0. Through the 4G mobile technology (LTE or WiMax), the user may access the net through wifi anytime and anywhere. Wifi and 4G agreement will provide every second 50-150M for your mobile equipment the wireless surfer speed. At present, the 3G network may achieve 6Mbps, was equal in 2000 about cable broadband. A company in Tokyo started to provide based on the WiMax family wide band, the speed is equal in 2005 cable broadband.

　　The people discussed frequently: Enhances the net fast cost to be very high. US\’s net fast in developed country is worst one, is early because of its installment of wireline network, these not mature infrastructure start can promote the development of enterprise, but will become one kind of barrier afterward. However, changes the high-speed wireless internet is a good choice. After all, is a stopover station installs fiber optics to install the mesh wire to the family be much more convenient than one by one.

　　PC industry withering away and cloud computation emerging

　　The PC performance constantly is enhancing, but its price actually by every ten years 50% speed drops. Usually, accesses the net this and table model machine\’s profit margin less than 10%. The apple concentrates on the high-end market, therefore receives the impact is small. If the apple is a car company, then it is collection Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Porche and Jaguar. At present, each price\’s PC market tended to be saturated, i.e., the potential consumers had the computer. Although developing country\’s market was still developing, but because the price is low, these markets\’ profits are few.

　　The wireless broadband is on the rise, organization and individual more data storage in “cloud” in equipment. The software will present by the service form, the user may through the handset, notebook, the tablet PC and television, even be implants cerebrum\’s chip to receive these services. Along with hardware large decline of profit, this kind of pattern may continue to create the profit. At the same time, the consumer does not need again to be hard disk management, backup and antivirus and other trivial matters worries.

　　Likely the Macintosh computer thoroughly has subverted instruction operation computer such, iPhone and iPad have the basic difference with before equipment. Along with the PC decline of profession, apple hopes that eagerly anticipates the new tidal current through these products.

　　The apple told Qiaobusi using the store and iTunes store, had the marketing channel to be important. Even if provides the machine free, he still may carry on the charge to the data accessing, simultaneously may maintain high-grade, keeps them out the malicious software and is defeated the competitor. Perfect application store may become in the consumer daily life the drawer, may be used to promote the corresponding operating system. The operating system, the hardware platform and application have composed an ecosystem.

　　The apple is taking the measure diligently, causes the nascent state system to move toward maturely in five years, this system with developing 26 years Macintosh system is the competitive relations. The apple estimated that within five years, Yun Jisuan will defeat the current PC industry thoroughly. If the apple cannot complete thorough reforming before 2015, it will degenerate into one dispensably, the profit meager equipment manufacturer.